Data on 39 local businesses puts a new customer at $103 to $30,712 in year one; the $15,340 HVAC and $10,000 dental figures trace to no measured spending

An HVAC owner who believes every new customer is worth $15,340 will spend like it, even when the first job is a $375 repair call.”

— Jonathan D. Byrd I, Founder, Rootstock Growth

DALLAS, TX, UNITED STATES, November 13, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ — Ask an AI assistant what a new HVAC customer is worth and the most common answer is $15,340. For a new dental patient it is $10,000. Neither figure comes from what customers spend, according to research Rootstock Growth published today: a new HVAC customer spends $375 on a repair visit or $8,350 on a system installation in the first year, and a new dental patient spends $887 a year.

In November 2026, 5 of 8 AI assistant answers gave $15,340 as the value of a new HVAC customer, and 5 of 8 gave $10,000 for a new dental patient. Rootstock Growth traced both. The $15,340 figure is credited to a 2026 analysis by a marketing company that gives no source and links to a 2025 post from another agency, which calls the number proprietary data and shows no method. The $10,000 figure comes from a 2014 article that labels its own numbers hypothetical and assumes a patient stays 20 years; a larger $24,000 version is about three-quarters assumed referrals.

“An HVAC owner who believes every new customer is worth $15,340 will spend like it, even when the first job is a $375 repair call,” said Jonathan D. Byrd I, founder of Rootstock Growth. “The number that matters is what your own customers spend in their first year. We put 39 businesses side by side so an owner can check a figure before building a budget on it.”

The guide, “What Is a New Customer Worth? First-Year Value for 39 Local Businesses (2026),” covers businesses from HVAC, plumbing, roofing and dental practices to law firms, pest control and pool service. Each first-year value is the typical first job multiplied by how many times a customer buys in a year. The median is $985; 15 of the 39 are worth under $500 in the first year, and 9 are worth $5,000 or more.

Other findings:

– The job sets the value, not the trade. An HVAC install customer is worth 22 times a repair customer. A roof repair is $4,699 against $17,631 for a replacement, both insurance-claim estimates.
– Repeat customers are not worth more in year one. The median is $945 for the 8 businesses whose customers buy more than once a year and $985 for the 31 built on one-time jobs. Repeat customers pay off later: a pest control customer is worth $836 in year one and about $2,051 over three years.
– Home services split three ways. The median new home service customer is worth $1,368 in the first year across 29 types; exterior and outdoor work runs $5,730 and home trades and repair $313.

For reporters and editors: the full table of 39 businesses downloads free as a CSV under a Creative Commons Attribution license, and the ranked chart is free to republish with credit to Rootstock Growth. Trade-level figures are on the guide page, one section per business: https://rootstockgrowth.com/guides/customer-value-by-trade. Source lists for any figure are available on request. Jonathan D. Byrd I is available for interviews.

About Rootstock Growth

Rootstock Growth is a growth agency for established local businesses. We find what’s holding a business back, then build what it needs to grow: marketing, sales process, CRM and automation, AI tools, and the systems that tie them together.

Every engagement starts with a free Root Cause Review. It measures how a business shows up on Google Maps from 25 points around it, in Google search, and in the answers ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude and Perplexity give, against its top three competitors. Then it ranks the biggest leaks by what they are likely costing.

Rootstock Growth was founded in 2026 by Jonathan D. Byrd I, after 25 years in home-service businesses, from local to national. Byrd founded Clean Pro Gutter Cleaning in 2001 and grew it to more than 840 cities in 43 states. We are based in South Dakota and serve clients across the United States.

Jonathan D. Byrd I
Rootstock Growth
+1 (901) 451-9573
info@rootstockgrowth.com
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